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WASHINGTON, DC | BERLIN: Research by World Resources Institute and Climate Analytics says global temperature could be limited to +1.7°C by the end of the century, if G20 countries set 1.5°C-aligned emission reduction targets for 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

Their report finds that countries’ current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and legally binding net-zero targets will result in a 2.4°C increase by 2100 – a level that will trigger irreversible ice melt in West Antarctica and flooded ports worldwide.

However if the G20, responsible for 75 percent of global GHG emissions, fully enact additional targets that have been announced but not yet adopted, temperature rise could be limited to 2.1°C, according to the research.

“The G20 is responsible for the vast majority of global emissions and it’s clear from this report that we need the combined action of the world’s richest nations to limit warming to 1.5°C,” noted Bill Hare, Climate Analytics CEO.

“Ahead of the Glasgow Climate Summit, the G20 governments must commit to taking much stronger action – to halve global emissions by 2030 – and put money on the table for climate finance.”

WRI says G20 members Argentina, Canada, the EU, UK and US have strengthened their 2030 emission reduction targets compared to the NDCs they submitted five years ago. China, India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, responsible for 33 percent of global GHG, have yet to submit their updated NDCs; Australia and Indonesia targets are the same as 2015; and Russia, Brazil and Mexico expect to produce higher emissions.

“Action or inaction by G20 countries will largely determine whether we can avoid the most dangerous and costly impacts of climate change,” said WRI vice president Climate & Economics Helen Mountford. “That is why it is so egregious that Brazil and Mexico put forward weaker emissions targets than what they submitted five years ago, while China – the world’s largest emitter – has yet to commit to a 2030 emissions reduction target that aligns with its pledge to zero out emissions by 2060.”

The next G20 Summit is on October 30/31 in Rome - followed immediately by COP26 in Glasgow until November 12.
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